About: UP State elections

Elections time in the five states of Punjab, Uttarakhand, Uttar Pradesh, Manipur, Goa. The mould (here, the ballot) is casted. Among a lot of mud slinging and finger pointing, the dead beat of time of verdict is growing louder. I think Swainathan Aiyar, columnists of Swaminomics in “The Sunday Times of India” he got is just right, election predictions are more entertainment than enlightenment The news channels are over board and perhaps the elections result may dissolve in the colours of Holi. He elections are one of the events in which huge hysteria is created.

Pretext

The best things Supreme Court did was to ban exit polls till all phase of elections are complete.

UP & not away.

The state of Uttar Pradesh is surely a gateway to New Delhi. A party which can consolidate its base in UP will surely find keys to forming central government. But thats easier said then done. A lot of turmoil in UP results national turmoil. It's the heart of Hindi belt a crucial crooks call UP home.

UP finds itself fragmented between the affluent and the poor, corrupt and the honest, the influential and the desperate, the sagacious and crooks, neta and the babu and not to forget the different factions which are inter & intra sub classes such as religion, class, caste, sub caste, subtle class etc. All these factors brings Heisenberg's Uncertainty principle so applicable to electoral mathematics. Its advisable to read more about Heisenberg's principle and other related issues on the Net. I have all but any answers on this subject.

While the other states of Goa, Manipur, Punjab and Uttarakhand may bi a bi-polar contest, what makes Up is the multi polar contest and in this state of population of more than 200 million. If UP was a country it would have been the fifth largest country (in the world). The well opinionated and multi faceted populace of this state are a miracle in this self. They have more than two opinions on everything. You ain't seen anything till you have been in the by lanes of a Muhluk or a Sehair. My grandfathers and grand mothers hail from here. I cant call it home but then UP is all but a distant memory within me. I do have a connect to that place.

A political log jam of last twenty years or so, seems to have ram shackled the state. UP has given most prime ministers to the country. The most powerful woman in India represents a UP constituency in the Parliament. But having said that, the sher expanse of land mass and populace seems to be a tough burden to carry. The implementation of policy seems a big issue, so is lack of accountability. Its tough to not get bored and over burden and add to the slide of the state. UP needs a leader.

The Nominees.

There are many in the fray. Mayawati, the incumbent Chief Minister has seen the state doing well and pocketing some label success. It has also helped deepen her own pockets. She is perhaps the only administrator of any region in the world who holds the record for unveiling her own statues. She seems to rule with an iron fist. She marches on like an elephant. It is the choice between her megalomania and council of crooks and corrupt people would have to exercise their choice. She may be just stake the claim to form the government on a wafer thin margin. It is a likely scenario.

The next in the fray is Mulayam Singh. He is a toughen campaigner and ex chief minister of UP. His tenure hallmark was absolute Gundaraj where might was only right. He is another proponent of casteist politics. He is the self proclaimed shoulder to set the under developed minorities (here Muslims) free (of what no one knows). His son has given Rahul Gandhi a run for his monies. No one know though for how long Rahul Gandhi may run. Mulayam is the dark horse especially if the chances of post poll alliances emerge. Both Mulayam and Mayawati parties are susceptible to crumble is the other party wins a landslide victory. I am not sure if Mulayam getting elected would be the best thing for the state of UP. It will benefit him though as most of the energy would be spent on speeding of white lining of the court case files which find Mulayam finds his name in them. He may put every effort to replace his name and details with that of Mayawati. He is open to the last bidder, but its anyones guess if there would be more than one bidder.

Congress ka haath of aam admi ki gardaan. Desh ka namoon kaisa ho, RahulG jaisa ho. He has done so much for the state (elections) and yet likely to get nothing for his return. There is a queue for people likely to take his place under the Gullitone of public opinion. He should have jumped in UP elections and thrown his hat in the ring claiming the post of CM. But who wants to give up the posh suburbs of Delhi to dust plains of Lucknow. No one, including RahulG. He fact that he hasn't jumped into the poll fray, proves that there is enough doubt in his (top advisers') brains. One has to agree that Rahul has given his everything up his sleeve including the grandfathers trick of appeasement. Its a shame that things are doled out for Muslims (not that they shouldn't) but continuously marginalizing the majority. I dont know how does problems of poor of one communities differ from poor and needy of another community. Its starting of a vicious circle resulting in the feudal society we see UP as today. Rahul Gandhi 's acumen and mettle and prowess is on tests in these UP elections. I am not sure if he has visited other states for campaigning. Rahul Gandhi was ably assisted (?) by his sister and rags to riches Robert Wadera, more commonly know to many as India's Jijaji.

The inhuman treatment of Bab Ramdev and the utter stupid episode of Anna Hazare would have shied away the staunchest congress support to opponents camps. These two factors, Baba and Anna are itching to haunt Congress. The earnest efforts of systematizing corruption hasn't exactly come to RG's assistance. I mean how can he diffrentiate corruption at the center to corruption in the state.

Congress and BJP have been marginalized to a large extent especially compared to the national extent. Congress has been reduced to nothing. BJP holds fort but need to put in effort to bring discipline and organization. These are a must if any hopes of forming a stable government at the center have to be rekindled. BJP should learn the lessons of these elections and apply those in the coming elections and turn the tables on other political parties.

Least likely scenarios.

These following scenarios are just for laughs, take them seriously at your own peril. dont tell me then, OK!

Maya wins with thumping majority and start expecting West Bengal like news from every nook and corner.

Netaji AKA Mulayam wins, give a winning speech which puts MMS to sleep. The return of the goons from cage to road. Utter nuisance.

It will be interesting to see if BJP + Congress gets enough seats together to form a government, BJP should come out and claim support to the Congress let government. Ever heard a stone and two birds?

I wasn't sure that congress would get more than 50 seats. Its purely Rahul Gandhi's efforts and Mayawaiti's madness that can contribute to a dozen seats to Congress. The aam Congress – meaning rich goon would be happy if Congress has enough seat to make sure UP is politically an unstable region. They would then use it to leverage their political will and the wheel of corruption would start spinning faster. Congressi would be praying that it doesn't decline to negligence. Thats the best case scenario for those guys.

If Mayawati or Mulayam dont get enough seat you will see lot of rats swimming out of there respective ships and try to align themselves with opportunities that let them indulge. It would be the direct result of these conclusions and then 2014 general election will seem further weakening of these parties.

The other states.

The gross corruption and organization of other parties on ground in rich State of Punjab, Utaarakhand, the far flung in turmoil Manipur and corrupt and inept state of Goa will prpobably invite equally intersting scenarios for post poll blogs.